I'm Arjun. This is my digital garden.

Lockdown 3.0: The case of Moral Hazard So, the lockdown has extended for another two weeks and a lot has been, is being and will be written about its good and bad. I have been thinking about the implications of principal-agent relationship between the central and various state governments and how the latest guidelines open a doorway for Moral Hazard . Here's why: The central government has designated districts as Red, Orange and Green Zones based on active cases present in any district. However, this information is provided to the central government by various state governments as health care is a state subject. Each state has formulated its own testing strategy. Some states are going for aggressive testing, some states are sticking to necessary (read minimal) contract tracing testing. There is bound to be a skew in the number of red zone districts in states that test more vs states that do not. Two maps. See anything? Map on left is redzone districts. Map on right i

Jobs & SMBs Many people are going to lose their jobs. Sectors directly affected will see this happening sooner, for example travel, hotels and restaurants, malls and multiplexes, shared economy etc. However, employment impact will trickle down to even other verticals - ITeS, Medical Services etc. Revenue roles (sales) are going to become much more stressful. Cost roles (IT, Admin, HR) are going to see redundancies.  MSMEs will probably be heavily distressed and many will be wiped out. Looking at glass half empty, the best placed SMB entrepreneurs right now are the ones who have no costs and no (or little) revenues.  Status quo is a bad thing right now Whether it's about any decisions in your personal life, in your professional life or as an entrepreneur. Don't "wait this out until it gets over". Any alternative will be high risk + high reward, but status quo will almost certainly be low risk + diminished returns.  Life from home Work from home,

A friend recently reached out to me and sought my advice about a new job offer he had received. Good, reputable firm, decent hike in compensation, same role but elevated title. The role required him to move from Bangalore to Mumbai, but the company was ready to pay for the relocation expenses. The only caveat was that they wanted a confirmation from my friend by the end of the day. No stress, should have been quite a no-brainer to take this job. Or was it? While making decisions, especially when we are restricted by time and with too many unknowns thrown in front of us, we instinctively turn to bounded rationality for aid. Bounded Rationality is the idea that our decision making is limited by the information we have, the cognitive limitations of our minds, and the finite amount of time we have. We also let our cognitive biases influence our decisioning. The new employer can try to anchor our decision by offering a higher title or by offering a higher compensation 'as per ind