Thoughts and predictions for the Coronavirus era

Jobs & SMBs

Many people are going to lose their jobs. Sectors directly affected will see this happening sooner, for example travel, hotels and restaurants, malls and multiplexes, shared economy etc. However, employment impact will trickle down to even other verticals - ITeS, Medical Services etc. Revenue roles (sales) are going to become much more stressful. Cost roles (IT, Admin, HR) are going to see redundancies. 

MSMEs will probably be heavily distressed and many will be wiped out. Looking at glass half empty, the best placed SMB entrepreneurs right now are the ones who have no costs and no (or little) revenues. 

Status quo is a bad thing right now

Whether it's about any decisions in your personal life, in your professional life or as an entrepreneur. Don't "wait this out until it gets over". Any alternative will be high risk + high reward, but status quo will almost certainly be low risk + diminished returns. 

Life from home

Work from home, Study from home and activity_from_home is going to be the new normal - but not in the current form. 

Companies/products like Zoom, Airtable, Microsoft Teams will take early leads but unless they identify and address the right gaps in this space (i.e. challenges that make remote working/studying ineffective), someone new will come and dethrone them soon. [Think Paytm after Demonetisation]

Offices and Schools will not start in full operations at least till July or later. 

Most CEOs will realise that allowing work from home for their teams is going to save significant costs for them. More remote working positions will open up and location based entry barriers for applicants will reduce. This will have complicated second order effects in hiring process. 

However, there is another, invisible component that firms may ignore considering: 

Productivity Enhancement

Remote working, if done in a conducive, cohesive and assimilated environment will not only save X% $ in costs, but also enhance per unit productive output for the firm. 

Companies investing in building a successful and inclusive remote working culture based on openness, transparency and trust will win in the long run. Risk: Out of sight is out of mind. People will look for side-gigs from home and companies will have to be okay with it.

There will be more interpersonal conflicts between people. Everyone is a keyboard warrior while they're on their desks. 

The Haircut, Dentistry and Dermatology Dilemma

Barbers are going to be in high demand once the lockdown opens, but will you take the risk of being in close contact with a barber? 

On similar lines, how is the dentistry business going to be affected? The thought of going through an already painful root canal that can also potentially infect you with Covid-19 is... er... very scary. 

The Airline Dilemma

* Can't serve existing bookings
* Have to refund forced cancellations
* Can't take new bookings
* No one is going to bail them out

Oil is low. 
Gold is high. 
Energy is 40% of input cost in mining.



Apps

And finally , here's a funny revelation about apps:
* Every app will become a dating app
* Every app will become a grocery app 
* Whatsapp will consolidate itself as the lifeline app for individuals and businesses and just like that, all worries about apps spying on us for our data will fade out. 

Comments

  1. UnknownApril 21, 2020 at 8:03 AM

    Very well written. Brings out great points about the after effects of this pandameic.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Amit TripathiApril 21, 2020 at 1:00 PM

    Finding new gold/silver/copper mines globally should be in focus of Indian VCs. The revenue growth in this space will be explosive with multiple profit centers and low capital recovery time.
    Would a discussion on derisking strategies in this space be of interest?

    ReplyDelete

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